CONGRESS LED GOVERNMENT TO BE VOTED BACK TO POWER

Its Election time in India. The next general elections will be held in the months of April and May 2009, and the Election results declared on 16^th May 2009. Every Indian thinks that, he is an expert political commentator. Every Indian has a definite view of the shape of things to come. The television news channels have already come up with pre poll surveys. There are basically three political alliances in India. The present coalition government led by the Congress Party is known as the United Peoples Alliance (UPA). The previous coalition government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The Communists and a few other parties call themselves the Third Front. The Indian Parliament consists of 544 parliamentary seats. Therefore, for the purpose of forming a government any formation must have atleast 272 seats.

According to Arun Nehru, who was former Minister in the Congress regime and who has joined the BJP now, the most likely result of the election would be as shown in the table below:

STATE	SEATS	CONGRESS	BJP	REGIONAL
ANDHRA PRADESH	42	19	NIL	13(TDP) 6 (TRS) 1(MIM) + 3 (PR)
ASSAM	14	6	3	4(AGP) +1
BIHAR	40	1	9	17 (JD-U) 8 (RJD) + 3 (LINS) +2
CHHATISGARH	11	4	7
GUJARAT	26	6	20
GOA	2	1	1
HARYANA	10	7	NIL	3 (INLD)
HIMACHAL	4	1	3
J&K	6	2	1	2(INC) 1 (PDP)
JHARKHAND	14	5	6	2(JMM) 1(JD(U))
KARNATAKA	28	7	19	2 (JD-S)
KERALA	20	11+Allies	NIL	6 (LEFT)(ML2)(KC1)
RAJASTHAN	25	14	11
MP	29	8	21
MAHARASHTRA	48	11	15	12(SS) 9(NCP)+1(RP)
NORTH-EAST	9	6	NIL	3 (NCP1SDF1/NPF1)
ORISSA	21	8	6	7 (BJD)
PUNJAB	13	6	2	5 (AD)
TAMIL NADU	39	4	NIL	16 (AIDMK) 2 LEFT 7(DMK) 6(PMK) 2 (MDMK)
TRIPURA	2	NIL	NIL	2(LEFT)
UP	80	7	8	36(BSP) 26 (SP) 3(RLD)
UTs	6	3	Nil	3(PMK1 JD(U)1 BNP 1)
WEST BENGAL	42	6	NIL	26 (LEFT) 10 (AITC)
		149	135

According to Arun Nehru, the Congress Party is only marginally ahead of the BJP. According to him, the congress is likely to get 149 seats, while the BJP is likely to get 135 seats and the rest of the seats will be bagged by different smaller parties, who align themselves either with the Congress or the BJP or even think of forming the so called Third Front.

I have a slightly different perspective. According to my reading the Congress party is likely to emerge as the single largest party in the next general elections and it would definitely lead the UPA coalition. Mr. Manmohan Singh appears to be a safe bet to lead the country during this difficult times of recession. He is quietly ushering in the necessary economic reforms. The pace of reforms could have been faster, but for the fact that he was held hostage for more than four years by the Communists, who opposed every move to bring in more foreign investment into the country. While the Communists in China are welcoming foreign capital the indigenous Communists of India are opposing the entry of multi national companies in India.

While the performance of Mr. Manmohan Singh may not be spectacular, it is steady and is therefore likely to be voted back with a greater majority. My poll predictions are as follows:

STATE	SEATS	CONGRESS	BJP	REGIONAL
ANDHRA PRADESH	42	32	NIL	5(TDP) 2 (TRS) 1(MIM) + 2 (PR)
ASSAM	14	6	3	4(AGP) +1
BIHAR	40	2	8	20 (JD-U) 6 (RJD) + 3 (LINS) +1
CHHATISGARH	11	5	6
GUJARAT	26	10	16
GOA	2	2	NIL
HARYANA	10	7	NIL	3 (INLD)
HIMACHAL	4	2	2
J&K	6	2	1	2(INC) 1 (PDP)
JHARKHAND	14	5	6	2(JMM) 1(JD(U))
KARNATAKA	28	10	16	2 (JD-S)
KERALA	20	11+Allies	NIL	6 (LEFT)(ML2)(KC1)
RAJASTHAN	25	18	7
MP	29	10	19
MAHARASHTRA	48	15	11	12(SS) 9(NCP)+1(RP)
NORTH-EAST	9	6	NIL	3 (NCP1SDF1/NPF1)
ORISSA	21	10	NIL	11 (BJD)
PUNJAB	13	6	2	5 (AD)
TAMIL NADU	39	4	NIL	14 (AIDMK) 2 LEFT 11(DMK) 6(PMK) 2 (MDMK)
TRIPURA	2	NIL	NIL	2(LEFT)
UP	80	10	8	33(BSP) 27 (SP) 2(RLD)
UTs	6	3	Nil	2(PMK1 JD(U)1 BNP 1)
WEST BENGAL	42	8	NIL	24 (LEFT) 10 (AITC)
		196	105

From the above it can be seen that, the Congress Party with about 190 seats would be in a position to form a coalition government with the help of its non-communist allies numbering about 90. The Communists would be reduced to half of their present tally and would become quite irrelevant and would not be in a position to black mail the Congress led government. This would be good news for the country.

One hopes that, the BJP will also shed its blind anti- Congressism and welcome the economic changes and also the new pro US foreign policy of the UPA. If this is done there will be scope for greater foreign investment in the country, and there by create more jobs. The recession in the West should be taken advantage of by India with its cheap labour and thereby compete with China. For competing with China there must be a broad understanding between the BJP and the Congress party about the economic and foreign policies. This is bound to happen very shortly, and the country will be able to get rid of the shackles of isolation imposed by the Communists for several decades. That would be the CHANGE, India is waiting for…….

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