The polling to the 294 Assembly Seats and 42 Parliamentary constituencies ended to-day. Even though the supporters of the so called Grand Alliance (Mahakutami) consisting of Telugu Desam Party, T.R.S., CPI, CPI (M) started a whispering campaign that the Mahakutami would wrest power in Andhra Pradesh, by to-day evening, it was clear that, the Congress Party would be voted back to power, inspite of two leading Telugu Newspapers predicting victory for the Mahakutami.
The victory of the Congress Party will be on account of a division of the anti-establishment vote between the Lok Satta and the BJP. The Lok Satta by all accounts is going to make a fairly decent debut by eating into the vote share of the Telugu Desam Party, while the BJP is likely to get the votes of the erstwhile TRS supporters. Eventhough, both these parties are likely to get about 4 to 5 % of the vote share, they are unlikely to win more than 4 or 5 seats, as votes will be converted into seats only if the vote share exceeds 30%. To make matters worse, the newly formed Praja Rajyam Party is also likely to take away some of the votes of the TDP, as a majority of the candidates of the Praja Rajyam Party are actually defectors from the Telugu Desam Party. Looked at from any angle, the Congress Party is likely to win about 170 seats.
The break up of th seats of the Congress Party in the three different regions of Andhra Pradesh is as follows:
a) Telangana 45 seats
b) Rayalseema 35 seats
c) Andhra 90 seats.
The Telugu Desam Party is likely to get about 65 seats, while the TRS will get about 20 seats. The Praja Rajayam Party will get 20 seats and the remaining seats will be shared by the Lok Satta, B.J.P. the Communists, and the MIM.
The Congress Party will get about 30 Loksabha seats. If this prediction is correct Dr.Y.S.Raja Sekhar Reddy will emerge as the unquestioned leader of the Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh and his detractors will surely be sent to political oblivion. This will also result in the Telugu Desam Party getting disintegrated and Chandra Babu Naidu will no longer be politically relevant in Andhra Pradesh. Simultaneously, the issue of separate Telangana will be buried once and for all.
April 24, 2009 at 4:43 am |
తొందర పడి ఓ కోయిల ముందే కూసింది.
May 6, 2009 at 5:15 am |
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